SMM, January 3: This mid-week officially marks the transition from 2024 to 2025. However, the domestic antimony market remains sluggish, with no significant changes in demand, resulting in basically stable market prices. End-user side, buying interest remains insufficient, with strong wait-and-see sentiment. Apart from some flame retardant and PV glass bidding projects, the market has yet to show a pre-Chinese New Year stockpiling trend. As of now, SMM antimony average prices are as follows: 2# low-bismuth antimony ingot at 137,000 yuan/mt, 1# antimony ingot at 140,000 yuan/mt, 0# antimony ingot at 144,000 yuan/mt, and 2# high-bismuth antimony ingot at 134,000 yuan/mt. Meanwhile, the current SMM antimony trioxide average prices are: 99.5% at 120,000 yuan/mt and 99.8% at 129,000 yuan/mt. Some market participants noted that large antimony plants in regions such as Yunnan and Hunan have already announced production halts for maintenance ahead of the Chinese New Year, with some planning to suspend production for over a month. Factoring in the holiday period, the actual suspension could last around one and a half months. Other antimony product manufacturers may also enter maintenance shutdowns in January. As a result, due to maintenance shutdowns, winter mining, and transportation difficulties, there is a significant possibility of a sharp decline in antimony production in January 2025, potentially leading to tight market supply. Additionally, after the price consolidation in November and December 2024, a recovery and rebound trend cannot be ruled out. However, given the persistently weak demand across the market, even if prices rebound, the increase is expected to be relatively small.
On the news front, according to SMM assessments, China's December 2024 production of first-grade sodium antimonate rose sharply by approximately 13.84% MoM from November. Following the rebound in October, another significant increase was observed. The sharp rise in December production was mainly attributed to the fact that December is the year-end, and many manufacturers accelerated production to meet annual production targets. Detailed data shows that among the 11 surveyed entities by SMM, 2 manufacturers were in a state of shutdown or commissioning in December, while production at a small number of sodium antimonate manufacturers remained basically stable. Most manufacturers, however, experienced varying degrees of production increases, leading to the overall sharp rise in output. Market participants predict that with the Chinese New Year holiday approaching at the end of January, the nationwide production of first-grade sodium antimonate in January 2025 is likely to continue its stable upward trend, though the possibility of another sharp increase in production is relatively small.
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